You might not think twice about the color of your text messages. But if you’ve ever felt embarrassed about your green bubble in a group chat full of blue ones, you’re not alone. A new study says this tiny design choice might be shaping how we see each other , and even what phone we buy.

The Bubble War You Didn’t Know You Were In

The paper, called “Non‑User Utility and Market Power: The Case of Smartphones,” was written by Leonardo Bursztyn, Rafael Jiménez‑Durán, Aaron Leonard, Filip Milojević, and Christopher Roth, and published as working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in April 2025 (a “working paper” is a preliminary version of academic research shared publicly before formal peer review, often to invite feedback or spark discussion).

The authors introduce a new idea: companies can increase their power not just by making users happier, but by making non-users worse off. They call this effect “non-user disutility.” The green bubble is their prime example.

The Green Bubble Problem Isn’t Just Annoying

Most iPhone users see green bubbles in their text messages and know exactly what they mean: the other person is not using an iPhone. But according to a new study, this simple color difference may be a powerful tool that Apple uses to make its product more desirable , by making alternatives feel socially worse.

The researchers conducted surveys with U.S. college students, a group that heavily uses iPhones. According to the study, “Over 90% of respondents believe that green bubbles stigmatize Android users, commonly associating them with lower social status and lower attractiveness.”

In an open-ended question, students described Android users using phrases like: “They are not as wealthy. They also have fewer friends,” and “There is a clear difference in social class.”

The study notes that “This demographic is also plausibly more sensitive to social image concerns and dating market considerations, where green bubbles may play a significant role.”

People Really Don’t Want to Lose Their Blue Bubbles

To measure how much users value blue bubbles, the researchers ran a deactivation experiment. They asked iPhone users how much money they would need to accept their texts appearing as green bubbles instead of blue , for four weeks.

On average, participants would demanded $49 for that change. Meanwhile, a similar task with no messaging change required only $18. According to the paper: “This compensating differential , above hassle costs , suggests that they are willing to pay to avoid incurring the green-bubble stigma.”

In terms of value, avoiding green bubbles was worth about 50% of disabling iMessage entirely and 26% of disabling the phone’s camera.

What Happens If Green Bubbles Disappear?

Another experiment tested how bubble colors affect phone choice. Participants were asked to imagine a future in which Apple loses a lawsuit and is forced to make all messages appear as blue bubbles. They then chose between an iPhone and a Google Pixel (plus $150 to equalize value).

The result: when green bubbles were removed, Android phone choice increased by 7.3%, which is a 46% increase from the baseline share of 15.8%. “This evidence,” the authors write, “that green bubbles contribute to the iPhone’s dominant market position.”

Apple Knows the Power of the Bubble

The researchers highlight internal Apple communications uncovered in the U.S. Department of Justice lawsuit. One Apple executive warned that bringing iMessage to Android “would simply serve to remove [an] obstacle to iPhone families giving their kids Android phones.”

This suggests that Apple understands how design choices like message color create social barriers , and potentially uses that knowledge to keep people inside the iPhone ecosystem.

This Goes Beyond Messaging

The paper presents other industries using similar tactics. For example, dating apps notify users of “missed connections,” and social media apps push stories that disappear, creating fear of missing out (FOMO). The authors write: “Companies strategically exploit social concerns by introducing product features that decrease non-user utility, such as by creating stigma, social exclusion, or inducing FOMO.”

This study shows that Apple’s design choices don’t just make the iPhone better , they may also make Androids feel worse to use, without lowering their actual quality. That creates loyalty not through features, but through social pressure.