Illustration of onlookers imagining a climber reaching a summit while the real climber sits on a low step.

People think failure leads to success far more often than it does

Across 11 studies, people overestimated success after failure: they guessed 58% of lawyers pass the bar on retest (true rate 35%) and 51% of overdose survivors enter treatment (true rate 16.6%). Learning the real rates raised support for rehabilitation.