A common hope is that each new generation in an authoritarian country will be more democratic than the last. In China, that is not happening. Members of Generation Z do not hold stronger democratic values than older Chinese, and democratic values overall fell in the 2010s.
The study, by Yida Zhai, was published online in Political Research Quarterly on July 14, 2026.
Separating age, era and generation
Zhai defines democratic values through two beliefs: that government and people stand in an equal relationship, and that branches of government should be independent of each other. Together these map onto popular sovereignty, the separation of powers, and checks and balances.
The data come from five waves of nationally representative surveys conducted in China between 2002 and 2019. An age-period-cohort interaction model was used to untangle three overlapping influences: getting older, living through a particular era, and belonging to a particular birth generation.
A decline under Xi Jinping
Age mattered for one belief in particular: views on an equal relationship between government and people shifted significantly with age. The period effect was clearer. Democratic values were lower in the 2010s than in the 2000s, a drop that coincides with Xi Jinping’s rule.
On generations, the young offered no democratic surge. Generation Z did not show higher democratic values than earlier cohorts. The group that did stand out was people born between 1971 and 1985, who showed stronger belief in the independence of government branches.
Zhai argues that these patterns call for rethinking how value change works, both in China and elsewhere, rather than assuming that younger, wealthier generations steadily drift toward democracy.
Study Details:
- Title: The Evolution of Democratic Values in China: Age, Period, and Cohort Effects in an Authoritarian Regime
- Authors: Yida Zhai
- Journal: Political Research Quarterly
- Publication Date: July 14, 2026
- DOI: 10.1177/10659129261468365