The biggest single reason people in rich countries want fewer children may be a change in belief: fewer people now think that a woman or a man needs children to lead a fulfilled life. That shift changed more than any other attitude over a decade and contributed most to the fall in plans to have a child, above all among less-educated women.
The finding comes from economists Raquel Fernández, Inés Berniell and Milagros Onofri in NBER Working Paper 35651, published on August 24, 2026.
Wanting fewer children
Fertility has fallen in nearly all high-income countries, and stated wishes have followed. Between 2012 and 2022, the ideal number of children fell from 2.42 to 2.31. Over a similar period, the share of people intending to have a child within three years fell from 28 to 21 percent.
The authors used two cross-national surveys that ask about both attitudes and fertility preferences, each fielded twice about a decade apart. They then broke each decline down into the contributions of a broad, competing set of attitudes.
Freedom, working mothers and fulfillment
Three attitudes stood out. Children are increasingly seen as interfering with parents’ freedom. Views on whether mothers of young children should work have become markedly more progressive, and this accounts for a substantially larger share of the decline among people with university education.
The third, the declining belief that children are needed for a fulfilled life, was the largest contributor to falling intentions. By contrast, the changing division of household work and rising work-family conflict made only minor contributions to the shift in what people want.
Study Details:
- Title: Falling Fertility: The Changing Value of Freedom, Fulfillment, and Family
- Authors: Raquel Fernández, Inés Berniell, Milagros Onofri
- Journal: NBER Working Paper No. 35651
- Publication Date: August 24, 2026
- DOI: 10.3386/w35651