Generation X is usually treated as the forgettable middle child of American politics. A new analysis argues that is because it is not one generation at all, but two, and they sit on opposite sides of the political divide.
Gen Xers born from 1965 to 1972 lean clearly conservative and Republican, much like Baby Boomers. Those born from 1973 to 1980 lean liberal and Democratic, much like Millennials. The dividing line, according to the study, is the birth year 1973.
The paper is by Patrick Fisher, a political scientist at Seton Hall University in New Jersey. It was published online on July 15, 2024, in the journal Politics & Policy.
Two cohorts shaped by different presidents
Fisher’s explanation rests on what political scientists call generational imprinting. Partisan loyalties tend to form between the ages of 14 and 24 and then harden. Older Gen Xers came of age under Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Younger Gen Xers came of age in the 1990s, under George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton.
To test the idea, Fisher used the American National Election Studies, the long-running national survey of American voters run by the University of Michigan and Stanford University. He compared older Gen X, younger Gen X, everyone born before 1965 and everyone born after 1980 across the presidential elections from 2000 to 2020.
Except for 2008, when both halves of Gen X backed Barack Obama, older Gen Xers voted much like the older generations, and younger Gen Xers voted much like the younger ones. In most elections, each half of Gen X was closer to its neighbouring generation than to the other half of its own.
Trump widened the gap
The split was sharpest when Donald Trump was on the ballot. On the survey’s 100-point feeling thermometer, older Gen Xers gave Trump a mean rating of 40.3 in 2016, against 30.8 among younger Gen Xers. By 2020 the figures were 46.3 and 39.5.
The same pattern ran through policy questions. Younger Gen Xers were more likely to want more government services and a bigger government role in health insurance, and less likely to favour higher defense spending. Older Gen Xers were consistently more likely to want lower immigration, and in most survey years were even more in favour of cutting immigration than Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation.
Abortion was the exception. In four of the six surveys from 2000 to 2020, older Gen Xers were actually more supportive of abortion rights than younger ones. That flipped in 2020, when younger Gen Xers moved left on the issue.
Among white respondents, the gap in racial resentment also opened up. From 2012 to 2020, younger white Gen Xers showed a much steeper drop in racial resentment than older white Gen Xers.
The divide survives statistical controls
Because race, education, gender and religion all shape political views, Fisher ran regression models on the 2020 survey data controlling for each of them. Being an older Gen Xer was a statistically significant predictor in all eight models, from presidential vote to racial resentment. Being a younger Gen Xer was significant in seven, narrowly missing on government services.
Fisher notes that generational boundaries are always somewhat arbitrary, and that people near the edge of a generation can have more in common with the neighbouring one. His conclusion is that “Generations matter, but they need to be properly defined.”
For pollsters and campaigns, that means a 55-year-old and a 48-year-old filed under the same Gen X label may be giving very different answers.
Study Details:
- Title: A generation divided: The politics of Generation X
- Authors: Patrick Fisher
- Journal: Politics & Policy
- Publication Date: July 15, 2024
- DOI: 10.1111/polp.12620